Understanding normative change to address the climate emergency

One of the main obstacles stop climate change from further escalating is not technological, but the societal and political will. The goal of this research is to understand how this societal and political will can be mobilised. Specifically, this research will advance our understanding of social change and how it can be accelerated in response to the climate crisis, by

1. Understanding what normative/social change is happening
2. Understanding what is blocking change,
3. Understanding what we can do to amplify and accelerate the change.

For this purpose we use a mixed-methods approach of data science, interviews, experiments, and computational models. Working with civicl society and policy makers we also aim to turn that understanding into actions and policies. In the extension period of the project we will focus moreover on the role that AI can play in studying complex social change dynamics and in assisting citizen-driven social change.

Contact:

Professor Viktoria Spaiser, Principal Investigator (PI)/ UKRI Future Leaders Fellow, [email protected], on BlueSky: @viktoriaspaiser.bsky.social and on LinkedIn

Dr Nicole Nisbett, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, on  LinkedIn. Nicole has sadly left the project to seek new career opportunities. Viktoria Spaiser is very grateful for her immense contribution to the project.

Dr Ajaykumar Manivannan, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, [email protected], on LinkedIn. Ajay has joined the project in October 2024.

Dr Susan Ann Samuel, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, [email protected], on LinkedIn. Susan used to be a PhD student on the project.

Rayan Onyonka, PhD student, [email protected], on LinkedIn

Academic Output

• Spaiser, V., Dunn, K. (2026). Authoritarian Reactive Climate Anger Displacement Effect (ARCADE) and its Consequences for Climate Obstruction and Authoritarianism. Current Research in Ecological and Social Psychology, online first, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cresp.2026.100279
• Abrams, J., Pereira, L., Spaiser, V., et al. (2026). Integrating tipping point concepts across diverse systems. Communications Sustainability, 1, 68, https://doi.org/10.1038/s44458-026-00063-5 
• Spaiser, V., Beresford, A., Dunn, K. (2026). From Climate Crisis to Fascism? An Empirical Examination of Susceptibility to Ecofascism in the UK. preprint on SocArXiv: https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/k6stf_v3
• Manivannan, A., Spaiser, V. et al. (2026). Generative AI for climate governance and acceptability-constrained policy design. npj climate action, 5, 37. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44168-026-00362-6
• McDaniel, S., Leston Bandeira, C., Nisbett, N., Spaiser, V. (2026). Political elite climate consensus erosion: Evidence from the UK Parliament (2017–22). Politics, online first, https://doi.org/10.1177/02633957261437983
• Andrade, T., ... Spaiser, V., et al. (2026). Agency and values for transformative change. One Earth, 9(2), 101618, 10.1016/j.oneear.2026.101618
• Lenton, T., ... , Spaiser, V., et al. (2026). A method to identify positive tipping points to accelerate low-carbon transitions and actions to trigger them. Sustainability Science, 21(1), 201-220. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-025-01704-9
• Spaiser, V., Nisbett, N. (2025). Mobilising climate action with moral appeals in a smartphone-based 8-week field experiment. npj Climate Action, 4, 81. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44168-025-00282-x
• Tigre, M.A., Murcott, M.J., Ann Samuel, S. (eds.) (2025): Climate Litigation and Vulnerabilities. Global South Perspectives. London: Routledge (open access).
• Nisbett, N., Spaiser, V., Leston Bandeira, C., Valdenegro, D. (2025): Climate action or delay: the dynamics of competing narratives in the UK political sphere and the influence of climate protest. Climate Policy, 25(4), 513-526. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2024.2398169
• Spaiser, V., Juhola, S., Constantino, S., Guo, W., ..., Spears, B.M. (2024). Negative social tipping dynamics resulting from and reinforcing Earth system destabilization. Earth System Dynamics, 15(5), 1179–1206. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1179-2024
• Spaiser, V.; Dunn, K.; Milner, P.; Moore, J. (2024): The Effects of Communicating Climate Change Threat: Mobilizing Anger and Authoritarian Affect Displacement. Environmental Sociology, 10(4), 408-419 https://doi.org/10.1080/23251042.2024.2369739
• Ann Samuel, S. (2024): The Role of Small Island Developing States as Norm Champions: A Force to be Reckoned with in Climate Politics. In: Tiky, L. & Kulnazarova, A. (eds.): Global South Agency in International Politics. Palgrave MacMillan
• Nisbett, N.; Spaiser, V. (2023): How convincing are AI-generated moral arguments for climate action? Frontiers in Climate, 5, 1193350. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1193350
• Nisbett, N.; Spaiser, V. (2023): Moral power of youth activists – Transforming international climate Politics? Global Environmental Change, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102717
• Spaiser, V.; Nisbett, N.; Stefan, C. (2022): How dare you? - The Normative Challenge posed by Fridays for Future. PLoS Climate, 1(10): e0000053. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000053 

Technical Outputs

• ClimateChamp Mobile Phone App: https://github.com/NewcastleRSE/climate-champ-app-public 
• GABM: Generative Agent-Based Model: https://github.com/compolis/GABM/

Selected Blogs, Podcasts & Videos

• Recording of Correcting course to 1.5°C: Positive tipping points in the transition to net zero, a panel discussion with Steven R. Smith, John D. Sterman, Nadia Ameli, Aldo Ravazzi and Viktoria Spaiser, organised by OECD for COP28
• Spaiser, V. (2024): Encouraging democratic citizen engagement in climate change solutions through digital innovation, Case Study, Fair Energy Futures.
• Joneja, K., Spaiser, V., Talwar, L. (2023): Speculative Visions. AI for grassroots-driven visioning of climate-positive future in marginalised communities. Offcentre Collective.
• Recording of The role of norms and civil society to trigger social tipping, Entering Social Tipping: Norms, Agency and Scales, Tipping Points Discussion Series, organised by AIMES, Future Earth, Earth Commission and WCRP
• Spaiser, V. & Nisbett N. (2022): Stabilising Earth’s Climate: Key Social Dynamics. Settee Seminars. Season Five, Episode Two. URL: http://www.ilkleyliteraturefestival.org.uk/whats-on/settee-seminars/settee-seminars-season-five 
• Reflections by Spaiser, V. & Nicole, N. on a trial of a Virtual Citizen Discussion on Climate Change Policies in the North using LiquidFeedback, results on the trial are reported here.

Impact

• Contributed to six chapters of the 2nd Global Tipping Points Report, published in October 2025 ahead of COP30, with a range of engagement activities at COP30. Media and political response to the report amongst others in The Guardian, Tagesschau, CNN, Discussion in German Parliament, etc. Read here the Univeristy of Leeds press release.
• Co-produced policy brief from the event Accelerating Social Change in Response to the Climate and Ecological Crisis, see Policy Brief
• Educator on the free Future Learn online course Climate Action: Tackling the Climate Crisis for a Better World.
• Contributed to the European Commission meeting Raising Awareness of Earth System Tipping Points: Implications for EU Governance in Brussels, 5/6 November 2024, see Policy Brief that resulted from this meeting.
• Contributed as chapter lead and author to multiple chapters of the Global Tipping Points Report launched at COP28, engagement and impact activities ongoing. Media response to report amongst others in The Guardian, Tagesschau, ZDF, Bloomberg, Nature News, Carbon Brief, France24, New Scientist, The Conversation, The Times of India, etc. Read here the University of Leeds press release.
• Invited speed talk with Q&A on behaviour change in response to the climate emergency at the Climate Change, Environment and Infrastructure Committee's Areas of Research Interest (ARIs) event, Senedd Cymru (Welsh Parliament) (30/11/2023)
• Contribution to the House of Lords, Environment and Climate Change Committee report "In our hands: behaviour change for climate and environmental goals" (2022)
• Ajaykumar Manivannan contributed to the Alan Turing Institute Data Study Group, working with ScotRail on how rail and road data can support sustainable mobility, reduce car miles, and enhance rail network resilience.